Have you ever felt like you're never going to get out of a position that you're holding? I feel like it with my lumber and nat gas.
I added more on those. I tried to be smart by adding onto a rally, but in a big down trend, I guess that's where shorts would add their shorts and I kindly took those shorts. Bummer. As soon as I added, of course, lumber resumed its downtrend.
Nat gas continued to get hammered. It was 12 just a few months ago, and now it's 3.5. It lost over 70%! I have no execuse on this because I'm trying to catch the falling knife. On upcoming trades, I'll probably wait for a trend change and try to get the meat in the middle using 'stops'.
Well, it's been a good exercise and I think I'm much better off using stops instead of hoping to turn things around waiting for months and months. Besides, I don't have unlimited money.
I might add 1 more level or so, but other than that, I'll just let it run. I need to be prepared for further downmove. Carrying cost kills me, so even though, I'm adding essentially, I'm not making much money.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
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