Lessons

Simply amazing. I'm learning a lot of lessons from the markets I'm in. In nat gas, I'm trying to catch the bottom and there's a basement now. Maybe there's an atomic shelter under the basement if I continue to try to catch the bottom. There are lots of argument about inflation v.s. deflation. As far as I can see, there's only deflation. I think nat gas' price is back to 1980's. Nat gas companies started to shut down, but this is going to take at least a year to kick in. I hope I don't get a margin call. 

In lumber, I tried to be smart. Instead of adding when it's going down, I waited for a higher high(s) / higher low(s) and then I added on a pull back. It worked nicely.... for about 3-4 days. As stated, it happened that I provided good liquidity to the markets for who wanted to short. Now it resumed its downtrend again. 

I honestly thought this kind of strategy would fit my trading style. But it's not for sure. Once trend is established in commodities, wow, it's just simply amazing.

What hurts more is, I talked about cotton and orange juice. I decided not to take those trades because I thought if they take off, chances are lumber and nat gas would too. I was completely wrong. Cotton and OJ took off their lows and I would say at least $5000 per contract per market. 

The beginning of April was great. I was very close to making up all the losses I had this year, but then it turned and started heading south now losing yet again a record loss per month basis. 

I'll let all of my positions alone at this moment. Fellow traders I know think deflation process will continue until the end of the year before inflation comes into play. Hopefully I will be still holding my positions at that time....