Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Who's right

Believe it or not, I'm still holding lumber and natural gas. To be honest, I'm really stressed out. At one point, I just want to get out and take some time off from markets.

I believe there's really something going on with natural gas compared to crude. These days if crude goes up, people think economy is going, so that's a sign of recovery. But then what's going on with nat gas? Nat gas is needed more in industrial area. The reason why nat gas price keeps falling is simply there's no demand. Where is the recovery if factories are not rolling?

I think nat gas traders who've been shorting know something that I don't know or crude traders are dead-wrong. Normally if price of commodity keeps falling, producers cut production pretty quickly and don't sell until price goes back up. But this time, nat gas producers kept producing yet hedging by selling futures contracts very aggressively. Maybe nat gas companies are in a survival mode. They don't think they can last to wait until nag gas price goes up, so they rather sell and lock in even at a lower price as soon as possible. Either way I'm really confused. Stocks do rally as well as oil, but yet nat gas is going to the exact opposite way.

What about lumber. Existing / new home sales yadayada. Yet lumber's making a multi-year low again. Lumber started diving way earlier than housing top. From what I see housing markets are nowhere near bottom. Too bad I'm holding lumber.

Over the last month or two, I lost more than 50% of my portfolio. It's very painful. I know nat gas or lumber will not go zero, but I'm not sure if I have enough money to hang onto my positions.

Sooner or later, stocks will pull-back significantly as well as oil, i bet nat gas and lumber will drop more than anything else since they can't even rally when others are rallying.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Golf and trading

I heard a lot about analogies between golf and trading. I had some general ideas, but since I never played, I didn't know.

I also heard people get hooked and go crazy about it. My father used to go fishing almost every weekend. But one day, he stopped going because he started playing golf. Since I've always like to hang out with my father, I watched him play at driving range. I also picked up golf balls for his putting practices. Now that I think about it, he's been totally 'hooked' ever since.

While I was in college, my friend asked me if I wanted to go to a golf range, but I just never did. From what I remember, many experts say, for tennis or golf 'before doing anything, take lessons first.' I didn't want to pick up any bad habits from learning on my own, so I said no to my friend.

Anyhow, about a month ago, I went to K-State gym where I usually play basketball. I often play pick-up games, but since I don't play as often, I just practiced dribble, shooting and stuff. At one moment, I all of suddent realized, regardless how much I like basketball (my fav sports is basketball), this is something I can't play forever. I can still be as competitive as college kids, but I don't think I should push myself that much anymore.

So I came home and found a few information about golf private lessons. Knowing how lazy I am, I chose the closest one offered and registered 'golf getting started' 4 day lesson. I enjoy watching any kinds of sports including golf, but I just don't know if I like golf or not and this was indeed a great chance.

Time has come, there were 3 people registered for the lesson including me. I was the only one who didn't have golf clubs. Day 1 was for putting. My coach asked if anyone has experienced golf. A dude was a former high school golf team member, but hasn't played for a while. An old woman registered because her husband loves playing golf. I told everyone that I have 2 year experience..... with Nintendo Wii as a joke.

My trading buddy Jack, who loves golf and has a few records in local golf courses, has always told me putting and pitching is two most important basics. When I watch golf on TV, putting seems so easy.

It was easy up until I started goof-around. I made a few long putts, but overall I had no idea how fast I had to hit the ball or how to read slopes. But regardless I miss putts, it was really fun. Above all, unlike usual triple digit July temperature in KS, the weather was perfect around low 80 to be outside. I just loved the feeling of standing on green with a nice breeze.

Day 2 came and we practiced some putts and went to pitching wedge. I made a lot of bad shots, but one shot just went right into the hole. If you play golf, I'm sure how that feels.

Day 3 was for irons including SW and drivers. It looked easy, but it was absolutely not. Most of balls I hit tend to go to right (I'm right handed). However there were a few nice straight shots. This is very interesting and I suddenly realized, 'man this is just like trading. ' Just starting out, I didn't expect to make a few straight shots at all, but I did. When I first started trading, I didn't know what I was doing but I made money here and there. Then again, just like trading, I couldn't consistently swing straight!

I consider myself pretty athletic with any kind of ball-related sports, but golf seems to be completely different. There's a fine difference between good and bad shots, just like trading! When I was hitting good shots, I felt like I'm ready to go to 18 holes. I soon realized it was not a good idea because I remember how badly I wanted to trade live after simulating one strategy only for a short period time and lost a lot of money.

The last day of the lesson was a short game. After practicing irons and drivers, we went to a par 5 hole. I made it with 9 shots. While I did better than the 2 other players, I went through rough, bunker, creek and so on. If it was not putting, it would have been easily +10 on that one hole.

I know how bad I am, but it was really fund that I decided to order golf clubs asap.

After the lessen, about 2 weeks ago, I visited my trading buddy's place to trade together. He's got golf net in his basement, so while markets get choppy I practiced my swing. He even made his basement ceiling high enough on purpose so that I can swing there. I swung a few times in front of him and he told me immediately I need to keep my head down. I didn't quite understand what that meant.

One night we went to a driving range and wow he swings like a video game although he claims that he had better days when he was younger (he's 25 years older than I am). I asked him again what he meant by my head doesn't stay down. He's a kind of person who's very modest and since I'm taking lessons, he doesn't want to say much.

Basically, what I was doing was, I swung as if I was dying to see where my ball goes. Thus my head turns left quicker as well as my left shoulder. So I told myself, 'Ok, I don't care where my ball goes. Let's keep looking at the ball.' Surprisingly, the very next shot was probably the straightest shot I ever hit.

My friend then says, it was a great shot, but don't just get frustrated if your next shot doesn't go straight. Just like he said, my shot went like a 6-4-3 textbook double play ball. I didn't get frustrated, but I exactly know what he meant and I thought it's going to take some time to be at the level I want to be.

I apologize if I go back and forth between trading and golf, but in trading, nowadays I simulate for a very long time and I know that's what should be done. In golf, I need to practice a lot even before thinking about going to a real field.

I hope my trading experience will help golf and golf will help my trading. Hopefully I suck at neither????

On the last day of golf lesson, I asked my coach, 'Why do people go crazy about golf?' He replied, 'if a guy makes terrible shots in all 17 holes, but plays good in one hole, that's enough to make him come back.'



Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Position updates

I haven't updated for a while because I was pretty busy with work and travel. Here's what I'm holding:

3 Sept NG futures long
1 Sept NG 3.5 Put short at 0.2555
1 Sept NG 4.25 Call short at 0.204
1 Sept NG 4.5 Call short at 0.126

I also added some more in lumber when it went down to 190 level. Lumber is very thin, but margin is very very low. 5 Lumber contracts are equal to 1 Emini ES.

To be honest, I pretend to be patient on this long term trade, but I think it's my stubbornness to hold onto these positions. I'm about break-even for the year. I'm looking to get out of everything with some profits. It'd probably go higher as soon as I get out, but I have to rethink if this strategy suits me well.

In the meantime, I've been working with my trading buddy about new trading setups for the past few months. We really like what we see. I think I'm at the place where I can consider quitting my day-job. I plan on opening a new account pretty soon and I'll post results.

On a side, I've been long GG from 36 all 100% with my Roth IRA. It's a tiny account, but the purpose is to hedge. If gold goes up that's great because I'm making money. If gold goes down, dollar should go up, so I'm making money there.