A new portfolio

I'm going to start either one or two new portfolio. One will be based on price action and technical analysis and the other one will be fact based. Both of them will have pretty small accounts, say $5K each.

I've been working with my good ole trading friend for a short term trade and it's about time to go live. He has just so much passion on trading and he's a kind of person who never gives up. He can sit in front of computer for hours and hours until he finds something profitable. He is constantly looking for a way to increase his probability.

While I built my house, he kept asking me when I'd be back to trading. He doesn't mind sharing what he's been doing and how he's been making good money consistently. He's always encouraging me saying 'we' can do this. Simply a nice person who can't say no if I ask any.

Even if I still have a lot of things to finish around the house, I did let him know, I'd like to come back on trading. Over the past few days, he shared everything he does and I spent a few nights with him with live charts.

What I'll trade is euro currency (6E). Euros simply move a lot compared to ES. If ES moves 10 points (or 40 ticks), it's probably a good day to trade. For euro, it's not hard to see 100 pips up and down, which is equal to about 400 ticks. This will work pretty well because I can get up early and trade while I have to miss US market hours to trade ES anyway. What I'm looking forward is about 3 small winners: 1 fixed target and 1 runner.

Another method is completely fact-based. I'm a big fan of fact based trading. Options selling was certainly one of fact based trading methods. If I didn't spend too much money on construction, I would have been still selling options just like Nat gas and Lumber. Nat gas would have been a killer altho it's 20/20 now. This method is pretty simple. Looking at different markets, I'm trying to see if a particular day has been positive or negative. For example, everybody knows Dec has been a positive month. There's a backtest data that especially first day of Dec is particularly bullish. Buying ES at close of 11/30 was a setup. The target was 15pts although it moved a lot more. This is usually a full day trade, but it sometimes takes 2-3 days if things are profitable, to let them run a bit more. Trading instrument would be ES, EURUSD, USDJPY and EURJPY. I probably have one position at a time.

As for markets direction, I have no idea what's going to happen. I kind of hope markets would drop so that I can refinance, but what I hope has nothing to do with what's likely happen. As markets have been extended quite a bit, I don't want to buy a lot, but I've found a few stocks I'd like to accumulate over time due to strong fundamentals. Too many people are still worried about a double-dip, which means it's unlikely happen. All the crashes happened when no one (or 99% people didn't expect). Gov will keep pouring money because 1 million dollars in 2030 is nothing compared to one million in 2010.

Another thing is historically real estate has been always the key to wealth. Sure, real estate was killed in the last few years, but I still think many still believe once real estate takes off that will once again become a key to wealth. This will take a while to roll over, but if I slowly get positioned, it'll be paid off handsomely.

I'll not going to post trade-by-trade, but I'd like to update the end of balance each day until either I keep trading or blow up the account. It was nice to trade a big account, but it'll be interesting to make a new small account grow again.