Recap

6/27

Sold 1 Aug NG at 2.951

Sold 1 Sep NG at 2.926

6/26/2012 (NG rollover)

Sold 1 July NG at 2.674

Bought 1 Sep NG at 2.737

5/24/2012 (NG rollover)

Sold 1 June NG at 2.65

Bought 1 Aug NG at 2.763

4/24/2012 (NG rollover)

Sold 2 May NG at 1.983

Bought 1 June NG at 2.075

Bought 1 July NG at 2.19

3/27/2012 (NG rollover)

Sold 2 Apr NG at 2.191

Bought 2 May NG at 2.285

3/7/2012

Sold 1 Apr NG 2.45 put for 0.215 ($2150) less commissions ($3)

2/23/2012 (NG rollover)

Sold 1 Mar NG at 2.589

Bought 1 Apr NG at 2.728

1/26/2012 (NG rollover)

Sold 1 Feb NG at 2.563

Bought 1 Mar NG at 2.60

1/19/2012

Sold Feb NG 2.4 put for 0.105 ($1050) less commissions ($3)

1/5/2012

Sold Feb NG 3 Put for 0.125 ($1250) less commissions ($3)

Flat on NG

Before I went to work today, I placed an order to sell 1 Aug NG at 2.951. At that time the price was about 2.8, so I thought it'll be a few days to get to 2.9. Shortly after I arrived at work, I received a text saying I got filled. To my surprise, my sell order was filled. The NG shot up to 2.97 level.

I opened TOS and started watching a bit to decide what I should to with my 2nd contract. This is a perfect example of why I'm not a good trader. When a trade goes against me, I keep telling myself, it'll come back, so I hold 'indefinitely'. On the other hand, if it goes is in my favor, I'm dying to pocket any profit. Do you see here, reward vs. risk is probably like 1:100, designed to lose money.

I placed a stop order at 2.926 (based on Sept contract) on the 2nd contract and yes I got filled, not because the price got down, but I accidentally placed a sell limit order not a sell stop order. Execution error. Did I get back in? No. I was thinking about it, but I think holding 2 lots based on my portfolio was too much. I was at one point -$15,000 and it was painful. I exited with a whopping +$250. I think there's a serious problem with me and I need to reevaluate my brain and maybe a whole trading career.

This is a major breakout to upside. The strong W pattern confirms, but I'm afraid if this will be a stoprun and we head down. If this is a true break out, it'll go further upside and will drift back to 2.8 level. I will do another analysis at that time. I'll trade QG instead of NG.

Sold 1 Aug NG at 2.951
Sold 1 Sep NG at 2.926

NG roll over

I executed the following trade today:

Sold 1 Jul NG at 2.674
Bought 1 Sep NG at 2.737

The behavior or NG doesn't make sense (if it ever made sense, I would have been rich already, ha). I think the path of least resistance is to upside and takes out the recent swing high going for 3, but it doesn't seem to be moving. Worse yet, I don't like the pattern we're forming right now, a typical topping pattern.

Usually after a thrust move, consolidate for a while and it moves again. That is the strongest move and that's the high probability trade. It may be a still consolidating pattern, but my patience is running out especially because NG can move anywhere anytime. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes below 2 again or above 3. Fundamentals still look good: Hot weather, hurricane related shutdowns, low inventory build etc... I strongly feel that this is when technicals meet fundamentals.... 'except the price.'

Nonetheless, markets are always right, right? I'll sit tight and just watch.

Time to add

In the next few days, I'll wait for a pullback to add. When we went to 2.8 last time, I was not quite convinced on the up-move. Today we had about 0.3+ move which is about $3000+ per contract and I'm convinced that this is a legitimate bottom. 

Double-bottom is one of the strongest bottoming patterns and I expect we'll consolidate for a while, but will eventually take out the 2.8 level. I'll add one soon and exit one out a little above 2.8 and ride the rest.

NG free fall

7 days in a row. It's definitely a dejavu. I was looking to peel one off around 2.9 level, but it got as high as 2.85 and  now at 2.3, ouch. I thought about buying puts at that time, but I thought it'd give another push higher. Had I bought a put, I would have had to wait for a higher price.

At this point, I really don't want to buy puts because, when markets are going down, puts get inflated and I do pay a lot of premium. What I should do is to sell another put, but I'm not sure if I want to fund more money to my trading account not to mention feeling as if adding to a loser.

The question is will it make a lower low or higher low... If it's a lower low, I'm screwed!