NG rollover

I rolled over 1 June NG to 1 Aug NG.

I normally just sell at market and buy at market, but this time I tried to time by selling June contract and wait to see if it drops down a bit so that I could buy at a lower price. Stupid me, it started going back up before I bought the Aug contract, so by the time I bought it there was a gap of $100. Had I bought immediately, I could have saved $100. Lessons learned.

Sold 1 June NG at 2.650
Bought 1 Aug NG at 2.763

NG at 2.5 month high

I have still debating between two ideas:

1. Selling one at b/e outright while holding the other for more profit if we ever get there.

2. Write 1 call options for a few hundred $$ profit while holding the other for more profit.

I'd like to get Jul 2.75 calls for $2500 or more, but I don't see much inflation in calls yet, which is probably good if options you're holding is well in the money and you want to swap it with a lower cost option since premiums are low.

I think buyers are still cautious and a lot people are still betting on shorts, which is maybe why we're going up. Now once buyers start coming in, we'll see inflation of calls, gap up of 4-5% overnight, $3000+ moves etc easily...

Today's move is very nice. I'm wondering if we'll close strong or just fade out. There are stops sitting around 2.6, so the logical area to go right now is 2.6 and up. Huge stops sitting above 3, which is the game changer in my opinion and that's what I'm aiming at....

PS. In 20/20, I'm kicking myself why I didn't buy at 2 and why I didn't add when it pulled back to 2.4... This explains why I'm not a good trader.

Pull-back expected in NG

We're sitting above 2.4 right now and today's inventory data came short of the consensus (30 vs. 34), which is a good news for bulls. However, I see this is a profit taking opportunity. We had a huge run from the 10 year low to where we're. The best possible scenario is we hold 2.4 level for a few days and do another leg up. Resistance becoming a support, right?

I'm looking to sell calls, but premiums are just not there. I need a few solid days, meaning open at the low of the day and close at the high of the day. Remember those thick green bars??

Another good news is Baker-Hughes gas rig count shows we're sitting at 611. I think 600 is the magic number just like that's what lots of traders are looking for. I'm wondering if tomorrow report will show below 600. However, note that with the new shale method, even at a low rig number, efficiency is quite high, or producers can quickly start producing again.

Early Summer cooling demand is another thing to be looking forward to. It seems power outage does a big role in nat gas consumption and/or a lot of companies are changing from coal to nat gas to produce electricity. Now that Winter heating demand was very disappointing, I'm hoping Summer demand is high.

Regardless, it's still a long way...

NG at a critical area

Nat gas is at a critical area. We had a bounce off the 10 year low, but not that significant imo. 2.4 is a huge resistance because it's not just prev low, but also if we break and close above (preferably 2 days in a row), it'll be a higher high. We haven't had any higher high and higher low for a long long time in Nat gas. If this turns and head back down, I expect a new low.

Let's close above 2.4 and 2.6. Then above 3. We'll see more short coverings and new buyers. I'd be fine if it bounces around between 2.2 and 2.4 for now!  Still a long way regardless.