Bought 2 May LB at 179.1

I finally got the pullback I wanted. Accordingly, I lowered Jul call order.

Position trades

Lumber is forming a bull flag. It really needs to close above 188. I tried to add more pull back to 178, but it only came back to 180 and now at 185-6. The easy move was from 180 to 185, and now it needs to find its way out to go higher. Should it break above 188 and go to say 195ish, I'll add more somewhere around 188 which was previously resistance, becoming a support.

Oil report came out positive for crude, which I think helped nat gas. But I'm losing like $1K every day in the last three days and gain $1K in one day. It's a losing game. What gets harder is when commodities are approaching to zero, put premium goes down too. I'm trying to sell 3.5 May put, but it just doesn't come down enough and premium evaporates quickly. Jun contract has still close to 50 days to go, I don't want to sell June puts.

At the end, I have nothing to do but watching. I'm hoping to get $20K out of these two trades.

Cancelled

It came within a tick, so I cancelled it. 816.25 has been a key area today.

Looking to buy ES at 816.25

I'm looking to buy ES at 816.25

Jan and Feb totals

I was not going to post 2009 totals until I become profitable because it's embarrassing in all honesty. But all of sudden, I thought it's more embarrassing to try to hide what my current loss is. That's not why I started this blog. I'm not sure if this blog will last forever, but I should be honest about myself not only when I'm profitable but also I'm not.

Anyway, I lost about 30K for Jan and Feb and I'm not sure when I can get out of that drawdown, but it'll work out and I need to be patient.  

2009 Profit / Loss

I was not so diligent updating the totals. I was down a lot at the beginning of the year, but made all back plus some (a grand or two), but all in all, I think this was a scratch year. I withdrew all to build a house and hope to be back after the done is done.

Lumber close

Today's lumber close is very important. As some of you know, I added 2 outright at 170 (a simple pullback to 170 support after a nice break out) and today it's moving higher. It briefly went to limit-up but didn't stay long. This is normal because the previous resistance was at 178 and markets always want to test how much stops they can run and how much new market buys are there.

The logical move is to pullback around 175-177ish and test today's high area again. After that, it'd be nice to see it close above 178-179, but what do I know.

Nat gas is getting killed because of oil report today. I'm -$12000 on that trade alone holding 2 contracts. I'm looking to sell 3.5 May put, but because of time decay, it's not coming.