Flat on NG

Before I went to work today, I placed an order to sell 1 Aug NG at 2.951. At that time the price was about 2.8, so I thought it'll be a few days to get to 2.9. Shortly after I arrived at work, I received a text saying I got filled. To my surprise, my sell order was filled. The NG shot up to 2.97 level.

I opened TOS and started watching a bit to decide what I should to with my 2nd contract. This is a perfect example of why I'm not a good trader. When a trade goes against me, I keep telling myself, it'll come back, so I hold 'indefinitely'. On the other hand, if it goes is in my favor, I'm dying to pocket any profit. Do you see here, reward vs. risk is probably like 1:100, designed to lose money.

I placed a stop order at 2.926 (based on Sept contract) on the 2nd contract and yes I got filled, not because the price got down, but I accidentally placed a sell limit order not a sell stop order. Execution error. Did I get back in? No. I was thinking about it, but I think holding 2 lots based on my portfolio was too much. I was at one point -$15,000 and it was painful. I exited with a whopping +$250. I think there's a serious problem with me and I need to reevaluate my brain and maybe a whole trading career.

This is a major breakout to upside. The strong W pattern confirms, but I'm afraid if this will be a stoprun and we head down. If this is a true break out, it'll go further upside and will drift back to 2.8 level. I will do another analysis at that time. I'll trade QG instead of NG.

Sold 1 Aug NG at 2.951
Sold 1 Sep NG at 2.926

NG roll over

I executed the following trade today:

Sold 1 Jul NG at 2.674
Bought 1 Sep NG at 2.737

The behavior or NG doesn't make sense (if it ever made sense, I would have been rich already, ha). I think the path of least resistance is to upside and takes out the recent swing high going for 3, but it doesn't seem to be moving. Worse yet, I don't like the pattern we're forming right now, a typical topping pattern.

Usually after a thrust move, consolidate for a while and it moves again. That is the strongest move and that's the high probability trade. It may be a still consolidating pattern, but my patience is running out especially because NG can move anywhere anytime. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes below 2 again or above 3. Fundamentals still look good: Hot weather, hurricane related shutdowns, low inventory build etc... I strongly feel that this is when technicals meet fundamentals.... 'except the price.'

Nonetheless, markets are always right, right? I'll sit tight and just watch.

Time to add

In the next few days, I'll wait for a pullback to add. When we went to 2.8 last time, I was not quite convinced on the up-move. Today we had about 0.3+ move which is about $3000+ per contract and I'm convinced that this is a legitimate bottom. 

Double-bottom is one of the strongest bottoming patterns and I expect we'll consolidate for a while, but will eventually take out the 2.8 level. I'll add one soon and exit one out a little above 2.8 and ride the rest.

NG free fall

7 days in a row. It's definitely a dejavu. I was looking to peel one off around 2.9 level, but it got as high as 2.85 and  now at 2.3, ouch. I thought about buying puts at that time, but I thought it'd give another push higher. Had I bought a put, I would have had to wait for a higher price.

At this point, I really don't want to buy puts because, when markets are going down, puts get inflated and I do pay a lot of premium. What I should do is to sell another put, but I'm not sure if I want to fund more money to my trading account not to mention feeling as if adding to a loser.

The question is will it make a lower low or higher low... If it's a lower low, I'm screwed!

NG rollover

I rolled over 1 June NG to 1 Aug NG.

I normally just sell at market and buy at market, but this time I tried to time by selling June contract and wait to see if it drops down a bit so that I could buy at a lower price. Stupid me, it started going back up before I bought the Aug contract, so by the time I bought it there was a gap of $100. Had I bought immediately, I could have saved $100. Lessons learned.

Sold 1 June NG at 2.650
Bought 1 Aug NG at 2.763

NG at 2.5 month high

I have still debating between two ideas:

1. Selling one at b/e outright while holding the other for more profit if we ever get there.

2. Write 1 call options for a few hundred $$ profit while holding the other for more profit.

I'd like to get Jul 2.75 calls for $2500 or more, but I don't see much inflation in calls yet, which is probably good if options you're holding is well in the money and you want to swap it with a lower cost option since premiums are low.

I think buyers are still cautious and a lot people are still betting on shorts, which is maybe why we're going up. Now once buyers start coming in, we'll see inflation of calls, gap up of 4-5% overnight, $3000+ moves etc easily...

Today's move is very nice. I'm wondering if we'll close strong or just fade out. There are stops sitting around 2.6, so the logical area to go right now is 2.6 and up. Huge stops sitting above 3, which is the game changer in my opinion and that's what I'm aiming at....

PS. In 20/20, I'm kicking myself why I didn't buy at 2 and why I didn't add when it pulled back to 2.4... This explains why I'm not a good trader.

Pull-back expected in NG

We're sitting above 2.4 right now and today's inventory data came short of the consensus (30 vs. 34), which is a good news for bulls. However, I see this is a profit taking opportunity. We had a huge run from the 10 year low to where we're. The best possible scenario is we hold 2.4 level for a few days and do another leg up. Resistance becoming a support, right?

I'm looking to sell calls, but premiums are just not there. I need a few solid days, meaning open at the low of the day and close at the high of the day. Remember those thick green bars??

Another good news is Baker-Hughes gas rig count shows we're sitting at 611. I think 600 is the magic number just like that's what lots of traders are looking for. I'm wondering if tomorrow report will show below 600. However, note that with the new shale method, even at a low rig number, efficiency is quite high, or producers can quickly start producing again.

Early Summer cooling demand is another thing to be looking forward to. It seems power outage does a big role in nat gas consumption and/or a lot of companies are changing from coal to nat gas to produce electricity. Now that Winter heating demand was very disappointing, I'm hoping Summer demand is high.

Regardless, it's still a long way...