Time to add

In the next few days, I'll wait for a pullback to add. When we went to 2.8 last time, I was not quite convinced on the up-move. Today we had about 0.3+ move which is about $3000+ per contract and I'm convinced that this is a legitimate bottom. 

Double-bottom is one of the strongest bottoming patterns and I expect we'll consolidate for a while, but will eventually take out the 2.8 level. I'll add one soon and exit one out a little above 2.8 and ride the rest.

NG free fall

7 days in a row. It's definitely a dejavu. I was looking to peel one off around 2.9 level, but it got as high as 2.85 and  now at 2.3, ouch. I thought about buying puts at that time, but I thought it'd give another push higher. Had I bought a put, I would have had to wait for a higher price.

At this point, I really don't want to buy puts because, when markets are going down, puts get inflated and I do pay a lot of premium. What I should do is to sell another put, but I'm not sure if I want to fund more money to my trading account not to mention feeling as if adding to a loser.

The question is will it make a lower low or higher low... If it's a lower low, I'm screwed!

NG rollover

I rolled over 1 June NG to 1 Aug NG.

I normally just sell at market and buy at market, but this time I tried to time by selling June contract and wait to see if it drops down a bit so that I could buy at a lower price. Stupid me, it started going back up before I bought the Aug contract, so by the time I bought it there was a gap of $100. Had I bought immediately, I could have saved $100. Lessons learned.

Sold 1 June NG at 2.650
Bought 1 Aug NG at 2.763

NG at 2.5 month high

I have still debating between two ideas:

1. Selling one at b/e outright while holding the other for more profit if we ever get there.

2. Write 1 call options for a few hundred $$ profit while holding the other for more profit.

I'd like to get Jul 2.75 calls for $2500 or more, but I don't see much inflation in calls yet, which is probably good if options you're holding is well in the money and you want to swap it with a lower cost option since premiums are low.

I think buyers are still cautious and a lot people are still betting on shorts, which is maybe why we're going up. Now once buyers start coming in, we'll see inflation of calls, gap up of 4-5% overnight, $3000+ moves etc easily...

Today's move is very nice. I'm wondering if we'll close strong or just fade out. There are stops sitting around 2.6, so the logical area to go right now is 2.6 and up. Huge stops sitting above 3, which is the game changer in my opinion and that's what I'm aiming at....

PS. In 20/20, I'm kicking myself why I didn't buy at 2 and why I didn't add when it pulled back to 2.4... This explains why I'm not a good trader.

Pull-back expected in NG

We're sitting above 2.4 right now and today's inventory data came short of the consensus (30 vs. 34), which is a good news for bulls. However, I see this is a profit taking opportunity. We had a huge run from the 10 year low to where we're. The best possible scenario is we hold 2.4 level for a few days and do another leg up. Resistance becoming a support, right?

I'm looking to sell calls, but premiums are just not there. I need a few solid days, meaning open at the low of the day and close at the high of the day. Remember those thick green bars??

Another good news is Baker-Hughes gas rig count shows we're sitting at 611. I think 600 is the magic number just like that's what lots of traders are looking for. I'm wondering if tomorrow report will show below 600. However, note that with the new shale method, even at a low rig number, efficiency is quite high, or producers can quickly start producing again.

Early Summer cooling demand is another thing to be looking forward to. It seems power outage does a big role in nat gas consumption and/or a lot of companies are changing from coal to nat gas to produce electricity. Now that Winter heating demand was very disappointing, I'm hoping Summer demand is high.

Regardless, it's still a long way...

NG at a critical area

Nat gas is at a critical area. We had a bounce off the 10 year low, but not that significant imo. 2.4 is a huge resistance because it's not just prev low, but also if we break and close above (preferably 2 days in a row), it'll be a higher high. We haven't had any higher high and higher low for a long long time in Nat gas. If this turns and head back down, I expect a new low.

Let's close above 2.4 and 2.6. Then above 3. We'll see more short coverings and new buyers. I'd be fine if it bounces around between 2.2 and 2.4 for now!  Still a long way regardless.

NG roll over

Roll-over time already!

Sold 2 Apr NG at 1.983
Bought 1 May NG at 2.075
Bought 1 June NG at 2.19

Note that I rolled over 1 NG to June, which is two months out. I did this because not only I think it will take a long time to pan out, but also, to avoid a negative spread often found in a front month contract. What this means is if NG is going up, chances are front month contracts will likely up go faster, but on the other hand, if it goes down, it'll go down faster. Since I'm holding two contracts, I'd like to spread out a bit.

As of today, I'm about -$14,210 YTD. Ouch.