Close high of the low bar

A very interesting day on nat gas. Today is the first time it closed the high of the low bar (on daily) after making a 10 year low. There were hammer patterns in the last few days, but never had a follow-through (meaning the next day didn't close the high of the previous day's high).

I watched the close of NG and it seemed as if lots of stops run as people tend to put stops just above previous day's high. I'm attempted to add more here, but that will make me feel as if I'm all in. Any thought?

NG update

Only 2 positive days out of 14 recent days. I'm definitely on the wrong side. Sure, it'll bounce some day, but if I were smarter, I would have taken advantage of this down move first before buying it. I feel quite dumb to say the least.

As winter seems to be over, we're into stock-building season again. People are not talking about storage being over-capacity. In other words, there's just too much gas and they can't store gas they collect. What do they do in this case? You'd think not to collect, but from what I hear, they dump and keep pumping new gas.

Sold 1 Apr NG 2.45 put for 0.215

I just sold 1 Apr NG 2.45 put for 0.215 (or $2150 less commissions). For this trade, I want to get assigned, so I went deep in the money. If I get assigned on this on expiration (3/27), my break-even would be 2.5955.

Overall NG looks pretty bad. Charts don't show any sign of bottoming. The only support is that it can't go to zero. Heck, it even broke the triangle to the downside. I planned on scaling in every 0.5, but I waited just to be careful.

What can I do when there's 10 year historical low....

NG roll over from Mar to Apr

Today I rolled over my NG long from March to April contract:

Sold 1 Mar NG at 2.589

Bought 1 Apr NG at 2.728

My new break-even is at 2.955.

NG Update

Not much to update. At the end, I didn't sell 2.5 put. I was very close to pull the trigger on the 2.5 put for $2000 or so, but chickened out. It would have lowered my break even to $2.61, but to be honest I was scared and I was worried about NG dropping to below 2, which was probably a sign that the short term bottom was in.

I've been watching NG quite closely, but I just couldn't figure it out. Sometimes it's technical, and sometimes, it just doesn't matter and does its own thing. Regardless, it just seems so heavy. It goes down easily, but goes up very slowly.

The March options expire on Friday and the futures expire on Monday. I was hoping to exit before the expiration, but my break-even is no where near. The chart patterns don't look that bad, but I think it it was going to higher, it would have been yesterday or today. Long bottom tails for two days in a row are good signs, but we have an inventory report tomorrow, which can invalidate everything. They are estimating about -150 B, which is too much consumption based on recent 50s (heck, today it's 65! where normally 40s).

Just like the 2.5 put sell, I felt I had multiple chances to add as I said I'd like to scale in every 50 cents, but failed to execute and I'm quite frustrated about myself. I didn't have a solid plan or ability to trade at the end, I suppose.

I'm flying out of country on Thursday night, so I might roll over my futures a day early instead of Friday. I will check options price to see if I should buy cheap puts to hedge, but premiums will still be high with even 1 day left.

NG new order

NG is about -7% today. I expect this to test the low. Accordingly, I placed an order to sell 2.5 put.

NG update

I probably shouldn't even look at what NG is doing everyday, considering it's a position trade, but I treat it like a day trading, which is completely wrong. I don't know why and I didn't have this kind of issue last time. After seeing $6K+ down, maybe I lost confidence in me.

On Friday, I placed an order to sell at 2.852 figured it might gap up after the weekend (based on the Friday's close). Markets also like to test previous high / low to see if it'll attract buyers and sellers and run some stops. I think the previous swing high was 2.830s so I figured, it'll spike higher to 2.850s, which give me a fill.

It did gap up nicely, but only to 2.844. A lot of things were going through my mind.

-I just risked $6K and only take $300ish profit at 2.844? That doesn't make sense.

-Based on my analysis, we're still on a downtrend, so I'm sure this wants to head down and test the bottom (or higher high) at some point.

-Should I set a stop at about break-even?

-Should I just get out?

At the end, I just decided to leave it alone. Instead of going to 2.855, Nat gas started heading down and today closed at 2.710 LOD about $1350 off today's high, so I'm -$1K again.

I think we're at a critical level. It looks like a bull flag on daily, but it also can dive from here pretty hard. I was hoping for a strong close, but we closed very weak. NG has been very volatile, so buying an put doesn't seem like a good idea. I don't sell a call at least until I have two contracts.

Anyway, I move my target up a bit because I figured if it breaks 2.844, it'll probably go 2.9 or so. If you have any advice on being patient, please let me know.