On Friday, I placed an order to sell at 2.852 figured it might gap up after the weekend (based on the Friday's close). Markets also like to test previous high / low to see if it'll attract buyers and sellers and run some stops. I think the previous swing high was 2.830s so I figured, it'll spike higher to 2.850s, which give me a fill.
It did gap up nicely, but only to 2.844. A lot of things were going through my mind.
-I just risked $6K and only take $300ish profit at 2.844? That doesn't make sense.
-Based on my analysis, we're still on a downtrend, so I'm sure this wants to head down and test the bottom (or higher high) at some point.
-Should I set a stop at about break-even?
-Should I just get out?
At the end, I just decided to leave it alone. Instead of going to 2.855, Nat gas started heading down and today closed at 2.710 LOD about $1350 off today's high, so I'm -$1K again.
I think we're at a critical level. It looks like a bull flag on daily, but it also can dive from here pretty hard. I was hoping for a strong close, but we closed very weak. NG has been very volatile, so buying an put doesn't seem like a good idea. I don't sell a call at least until I have two contracts.
Anyway, I move my target up a bit because I figured if it breaks 2.844, it'll probably go 2.9 or so. If you have any advice on being patient, please let me know.
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