A chosen one

Have you felt that you have so many things to choose from, but it happens so that you chose something that doesn't work out? I was looking at Corn-Wheat spread, Gold-Platinum spread and Nat gas. It looks like Corn-Wheat would have yielded about $1200 and Gold-Platinum would have yielded about $2600 whereas I'm about -$2200 with Nat gas. I guess we'd all become a good trader in hindsight anyway.

Here's my plan. My break-even on NG is 2.875. NG is currently being traded at 2.655. If it closes around this price at options expiration, I'll roll over and I'll place an order for at or slighly out of the money options for a covered call. To do this I need a bit of bounce. If NG keeps going down like the last 5 days, this can't work.

For example, my roll-over price is at 2.7 and my break even is 2.9 (after the spread between Feb and Mar NG factored in), I'd like to sell 2.8 Calls for 0.2 ($2000), to ultimately make about $1000. Once I have 2.8 calls sold, I'm in a sold position because if it drops again, my break is lowered (2.9-0.2 = 2.7).

On the other hand, if it doesn't give me a chance to sell the call, I'm looking to sell another puts at 2.5 to cost-average. In this case, I can try to sell 2.7 calls for $2000 or so.

There's been lots of talks on NG: hedge fund getting hit, the shortest winter, abundance, new technology to drill etc... I'm simply trying to trade my plan with lots of patience.

I hope for a bounce since the 5-day in a row down day has not been fun.