Friday, November 6, 2009

Job#

It seems non-farm # ruined all the party. We're still at the point where we keep losing. What we've had since early this year was simply a decrease of the degree of losing jobs. So unless jobs were added, the unemployment rate will not get better.

Nat gas resumed its trend to downside. It'll probably challenge the low again and probably dip lower. I'm glad I covered 1 before it tanked. I was just so close to cover all of them. All I needed was 1 day of staying at the high. Then my options would have been offset.

Lumber has moved to upside slightly. I think that's because of the extended home buyer's tax credit. I don't know how much it'll be helpful. Normally it'd take 6 months for experienced builders to build a house, so if they start building in 1 month (considering getting permits / getting bids etc), they only have 4 months until April. If they find a buyer before the end of April, good for them, but theses days new houses don't get sold before they are done.

Existing home sales are not much different. If you have a family, you probably don't move until your kids schools are done in mid to end of May, so what good is April deadline?

A little guy like me, unfortunately, have to just hope economy gets better. Everything started from housing market collapse. It then went to less consumer spending, company cost cut, job loss, foreclosure / short sales and it continues.

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