NG roll over

NG made 10 year low today. I don't think my puts will be out of money, so I just rolled NG contracts from Apr to May.

Sold 2 Apr NG at 2.191

Bought 2 May NG at 2.285

My new break-even based on May contract is 2.692

Next week

The Apr options expire on 3/27. My 2.45 put is well in the money. From that position, I'm +$500 or so, but was +$1400 at one point. I was hoping after today's inventory report, it'd go up, but the opposite was true.

The overall theme of NG is that it goes up very little and comes down hard easily. I liked the way it acted over the last few days. Very quite, narrow ranges, not much up or down, which means it was bottoming.

That didn't last long. We're about 5 cents away from the 10 year low. With 3 days to go, my put options will probably be assigned a long position, so I need to roll over on 3/27. At that point, I would be holding 2 longs with the average price of 2.596. Once I roll to May contract, it'll be around 2.7 due to contango.

NG can get very volatile from time to time. I feel as if all I need is two to three solid days. To make that happen, we need some sort of news. At this level, buyers are definitely sitting aside and commercial sellers seem to lock whatever price they can get. Weather doesn't seem to help much and neither does the rig count. They are certainly worried about overflow of underground storage tanks.

A question I keep asking myself everyday is should I add or just sit out.

I'm also looking at other contracts too. It seems both Wheat-Corn trade and Gold-Platinum are available again. I'm hesitant on this because TOS doesn't give you any margin break on spread unlike other good brokers. In addition, what if I need more bullets on NG...

Apple puts also seem interesting. Everybody likes Apple stock. People who lost money in others bought all the AAPL they can afford and sitting on them. If this starts coming down, I think you'll see 550 pretty quick. Chart patterns already look like topping. I'm thinking buying an out of money put and simply forget about it risking 100%.

Close high of the low bar

A very interesting day on nat gas. Today is the first time it closed the high of the low bar (on daily) after making a 10 year low. There were hammer patterns in the last few days, but never had a follow-through (meaning the next day didn't close the high of the previous day's high).

I watched the close of NG and it seemed as if lots of stops run as people tend to put stops just above previous day's high. I'm attempted to add more here, but that will make me feel as if I'm all in. Any thought?

NG update

Only 2 positive days out of 14 recent days. I'm definitely on the wrong side. Sure, it'll bounce some day, but if I were smarter, I would have taken advantage of this down move first before buying it. I feel quite dumb to say the least.

As winter seems to be over, we're into stock-building season again. People are not talking about storage being over-capacity. In other words, there's just too much gas and they can't store gas they collect. What do they do in this case? You'd think not to collect, but from what I hear, they dump and keep pumping new gas.

Sold 1 Apr NG 2.45 put for 0.215

I just sold 1 Apr NG 2.45 put for 0.215 (or $2150 less commissions). For this trade, I want to get assigned, so I went deep in the money. If I get assigned on this on expiration (3/27), my break-even would be 2.5955.

Overall NG looks pretty bad. Charts don't show any sign of bottoming. The only support is that it can't go to zero. Heck, it even broke the triangle to the downside. I planned on scaling in every 0.5, but I waited just to be careful.

What can I do when there's 10 year historical low....

NG roll over from Mar to Apr

Today I rolled over my NG long from March to April contract:

Sold 1 Mar NG at 2.589

Bought 1 Apr NG at 2.728

My new break-even is at 2.955.

NG Update

Not much to update. At the end, I didn't sell 2.5 put. I was very close to pull the trigger on the 2.5 put for $2000 or so, but chickened out. It would have lowered my break even to $2.61, but to be honest I was scared and I was worried about NG dropping to below 2, which was probably a sign that the short term bottom was in.

I've been watching NG quite closely, but I just couldn't figure it out. Sometimes it's technical, and sometimes, it just doesn't matter and does its own thing. Regardless, it just seems so heavy. It goes down easily, but goes up very slowly.

The March options expire on Friday and the futures expire on Monday. I was hoping to exit before the expiration, but my break-even is no where near. The chart patterns don't look that bad, but I think it it was going to higher, it would have been yesterday or today. Long bottom tails for two days in a row are good signs, but we have an inventory report tomorrow, which can invalidate everything. They are estimating about -150 B, which is too much consumption based on recent 50s (heck, today it's 65! where normally 40s).

Just like the 2.5 put sell, I felt I had multiple chances to add as I said I'd like to scale in every 50 cents, but failed to execute and I'm quite frustrated about myself. I didn't have a solid plan or ability to trade at the end, I suppose.

I'm flying out of country on Thursday night, so I might roll over my futures a day early instead of Friday. I will check options price to see if I should buy cheap puts to hedge, but premiums will still be high with even 1 day left.