NG Update

Not much to update. At the end, I didn't sell 2.5 put. I was very close to pull the trigger on the 2.5 put for $2000 or so, but chickened out. It would have lowered my break even to $2.61, but to be honest I was scared and I was worried about NG dropping to below 2, which was probably a sign that the short term bottom was in.

I've been watching NG quite closely, but I just couldn't figure it out. Sometimes it's technical, and sometimes, it just doesn't matter and does its own thing. Regardless, it just seems so heavy. It goes down easily, but goes up very slowly.

The March options expire on Friday and the futures expire on Monday. I was hoping to exit before the expiration, but my break-even is no where near. The chart patterns don't look that bad, but I think it it was going to higher, it would have been yesterday or today. Long bottom tails for two days in a row are good signs, but we have an inventory report tomorrow, which can invalidate everything. They are estimating about -150 B, which is too much consumption based on recent 50s (heck, today it's 65! where normally 40s).

Just like the 2.5 put sell, I felt I had multiple chances to add as I said I'd like to scale in every 50 cents, but failed to execute and I'm quite frustrated about myself. I didn't have a solid plan or ability to trade at the end, I suppose.

I'm flying out of country on Thursday night, so I might roll over my futures a day early instead of Friday. I will check options price to see if I should buy cheap puts to hedge, but premiums will still be high with even 1 day left.