Tuesday, June 26, 2012

NG roll over

I executed the following trade today:

Sold 1 Jul NG at 2.674
Bought 1 Sep NG at 2.737

The behavior or NG doesn't make sense (if it ever made sense, I would have been rich already, ha). I think the path of least resistance is to upside and takes out the recent swing high going for 3, but it doesn't seem to be moving. Worse yet, I don't like the pattern we're forming right now, a typical topping pattern.

Usually after a thrust move, consolidate for a while and it moves again. That is the strongest move and that's the high probability trade. It may be a still consolidating pattern, but my patience is running out especially because NG can move anywhere anytime. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes below 2 again or above 3. Fundamentals still look good: Hot weather, hurricane related shutdowns, low inventory build etc... I strongly feel that this is when technicals meet fundamentals.... 'except the price.'

Nonetheless, markets are always right, right? I'll sit tight and just watch.

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