The market is expecting an increase of +22B compared to +58B last week. Although we had two cold weeks, I'm not sure if it can beat (lower increase than +22) the expectation.
How people are going to react is always another story as well. Markets always have something better or worse than expected as well as some strange thing called 'whisper'.
What I'm really not comfortable about the current situation is yesterday's move. We had a big topping candle. The 6.2 level in Dec contract is really big. Big guys who have been shorting seem to be defending that level.
I was hoping to buy some puts yesterday. Nov 5 put came as low as 0.07 which was still higher than what I would pay (0.05 or $500), so here I am sitting.
It seems stocks want to take a break too, which will probably strengthen dollar, weaken gold / oil / other commodities. I do like grains especially wheat. I wanted to buy pullback to 480 level, but it just shot higher yesterday.
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