I believe there's really something going on with natural gas compared to crude. These days if crude goes up, people think economy is going, so that's a sign of recovery. But then what's going on with nat gas? Nat gas is needed more in industrial area. The reason why nat gas price keeps falling is simply there's no demand. Where is the recovery if factories are not rolling?
I think nat gas traders who've been shorting know something that I don't know or crude traders are dead-wrong. Normally if price of commodity keeps falling, producers cut production pretty quickly and don't sell until price goes back up. But this time, nat gas producers kept producing yet hedging by selling futures contracts very aggressively. Maybe nat gas companies are in a survival mode. They don't think they can last to wait until nag gas price goes up, so they rather sell and lock in even at a lower price as soon as possible. Either way I'm really confused. Stocks do rally as well as oil, but yet nat gas is going to the exact opposite way.
What about lumber. Existing / new home sales yadayada. Yet lumber's making a multi-year low again. Lumber started diving way earlier than housing top. From what I see housing markets are nowhere near bottom. Too bad I'm holding lumber.
Over the last month or two, I lost more than 50% of my portfolio. It's very painful. I know nat gas or lumber will not go zero, but I'm not sure if I have enough money to hang onto my positions.
Sooner or later, stocks will pull-back significantly as well as oil, i bet nat gas and lumber will drop more than anything else since they can't even rally when others are rallying.
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