Friday, June 12, 2009

Natural gas lagger

I read a lot of Natural gas news about how good it is to buy now. It sounds great since I'm holding, right? In all honesty, I don't like it at all. I actually think that's exactly why Nat gas can't rally. I don't know how many people got on the recent crude rally, but most of people I know are just watching the markets lately. They want to buy energies, but they feel that crude is overly extended. Also, if stock markets drop, chances are commodities will drop as well.

I'm a big believer of leader and lagger in the markets. There are stocks (or markets) that don't go down as much as others in a bear market. Those usually start rallying faster and more than those got beaten down. I think crude is definitely is the leader and nat gas is the lagger. When crude goes higher, nat gas either stays or up a bit. When crude goes down, nat gas goes down even further. While nat gas can rally while crude goes down, I don't see this happen just yet. I don't know when it'll come. I'm just afraid, the market correction starts and before nat gas starts seeing any rally, it would drop. 

Yesterday, I placed a day order to add lumber at 196.50. I thought I was filled since it settled at 196.3. However, when I checked this morning, I didn't get filled. Not to mention, today Lumber went limit-up to 206.3. It was a good buy because Lumber recently went up crazy and has pulled back consolidating around 195-200 level for a few days. It looked like a textbook bull-flag to me. 

Anyway, too much whining here. I hope everybody has a great weekend.

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