Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Oct P/L

I updated my Oct P/L. Not a good month, but I think it could have been worse. I mainly have only one position, Lumber. While everybody was liquidating everything, Lumber was no exception. One big mistake I made was I didn't quite understand about inflation and deflation in terms of diversification. Lumber benefits from economy inflation and Soybean-meal spread (remember?) trade benefits from deflation. In other words, while losing money on Lumber , the bean spread would have offset it. I got positioned the bean spread while we were going through inflation, which was good, but I exited too early. Markets got deflated, and I didn't have any position to hedge Lumber deflation.

I'm overall about break-even year-to-date where most of my money is. I'm not sure if I should be happy about that result, but I guess I'm still surviving.

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