Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Hate the markets

Usually when someone hates markets, that means 'losing money.' I'm no exception.

1. Money club
As some of you know I'm involved with money club. The club's position is 99% of time against the market direction because it utilizes time decay in options. I don't want to see Gold, Oil, Grains etc make new highs. Yesterday, when gold dipped 20 pts, I was relieved, but today it's +25 making a new high. Crude is +3.50 still going. Euro making a new high and even Coffee is +1.2%. Yet, this is still managable. The real deal comes....

2. Position trades
Lumber is just not taking a break at all. Yesterday limit down. Today down again. I'm net -$5400. The soybeans-soymeal spread trade is even worse. Net -$13000. These are supposed to be all fact-based trades, so eventually it'll go in my favor (sometimes it takes years) but I was totally not expecting this much drawdown this fast. I have a big chunk of money coming in July, so I thought it'd be okay, but -$18000 is more than half of my portfolio and I have to worry about margin calls unless this move slows down.

I'm honestly not sure if I can survive on this. I thought I got better, but the same thing happens again and again. Sign me up guys, I'll be one of those 95% who lose money...

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