Friday, February 29, 2008

Sweating

My position trades are absolutely going insane. While I was prepared to go through 'some' draw downs, but I didn't expect them to happen this fast and this furious.

Two lumber puts are expiring today. Lumber closed around 219 yesterday, so if it doesn't close above 220, I'll get assigned on two contracts. I'm hoping that the market closes above 220, so I have a bit more room on margin to carry my spread. I want you to know that this Lumber is doing exactly what I expected. But the problem is....

This spread trading is just nuts. This is not 100% same tpye of trading as the Lumber trade, because the spread can go to infinite even if it never happened before. As beans move higher, my loss gets bigger because soymeal doesn't move as much as beans. I'm really attempted to exit soymeal and sell another bean at the current level (adding onto a loser??). I was going to do that last week, but I just haven't seen any weakness at all! Ideally, if I see a big engulfing pattern or shooting star type candle, that tells me we're at least ready for a pull-back, which will give me enough time to take profits of $1-3K, which is significantly reduced from the projected target of $7K or so.

I really need to manage this position. I might need to deposit more. Some may say just exit the position, but it was a great level to enter the spread at $27500 and it's even better now at $37000! Maybe my version of black Monday is coming, but just not yet.

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