As everyone should know, global markets tanked over the U.S. weekend. Fed came up with an emergency 3-quarters of key interest rate cut. FOMC being 1 week from today, the fed's move was really bold and shows how serious our situation is. So many countries depend on dollars. If we collapse, chances are global economy will struggle as well.
I've been watching markets since right after .com bubble. I've been through many post FOMC move, news, earnings etc... I thought the move in early 2007 was probably the most volatile market I will ever see. Not until today.... 20-30pts in YM move in a matter of second. The only way to survive in this market is to use a wide stop. I mean at least 40 YM pts or 4 ES pts. Of course, you don't want to take your profit at 5 pts. It's either make lots of money or lose lots of money.
One to keep in mind is don't over trade this kind of market. I've done that and lost a lot. I'll probably lose if I jump in, lose money, and start doing the 'revenge' trading. Keep a daily limit loss too. If you look back, don't you sometimes wish that 'if I could just get rid of one or two bad days...'
YM is up 412 as of 10:20AM. I guess the Fed's cut's been working ok so far. Monthly chart looks very ugly breaking a key support in trendline. I don't think this rally will last long, but I definitely like to see where it closes today. I've seen some people over-trade and exited their positions, which is ironically where pros will go long.
Gold was down at 850 level at one point, now 890. What as I doing. I've been talking about getting in gold again, but not doing any thing. For some reason, I have a hard time pulling the trigger this year.
Grains and oils are also down quite a bit mostly due to fear of recession. If recession comes in, people will reduce cost on everything / commodities. The position I'm holding (Soybeans-Soymeal spread) will benefit from falling in grains. It is again s position trade, so I will just sit back and watch. I put an order to sell another put in Lumber. The Lumber at 240 was cheap and 220 is a bargain. I will continue to add every 20 pts. I'm prepared until Lumber goes down until 150 or so.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
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